The imperialists in Moscow have finally dropped their last facade in their war with Ukraine. From 24 February 2022 until March 2024, they claimed that Russia was only conducting an ”special military operation” in Ukraine. Anybody who talked about a war with Ukraine was censured and could face detention. However now the representatives of the Kremlin themselves are talking about a actual war with Ukraine, ending the facade of a ”special military operation”.
The situation as of March 2024
Vladimir Putin seems to have accepted reality, that Russia is at war with Ukraine. Until now the Russian propaganda was not allowed to use the word; ”war”, because the Kremlin did not wanted its people to know that they were fighting in Ukraine. However after 150.000 death soldiers they could not longer keep that facade alive. Russian men were dying and not in small numbers. Russia has lost more soldiers in the war with Ukraine, then with their war in Afghanistan (1979-1988). Ukraine has kept the imperialists from taking more land, but despite massive NATO support is unable to take back what Russia captured in early 2022.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has promised his people, that Ukraine would recapture all lost territories, including Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. However as of March 2024, Ukraine seems unable to mount a offensive against the Russian imperialists. Mainly this because they are out of ammunition and despite promises of support, the western world is unable to provide. The western stockpiles are depleted, which leaves Ukraine unable to mount a effective attack. Meanwhile the Russians just have to wait until their North Korean factories have produced enough guns for a counter attack.
Can Russia win the war?
The Russian ”Empire” has the means to win the conflict. Their army is bigger and they have a better military industrial complex compared to Ukraine. Kyiv was forced to build up a defence industry out of nothing. There remains deep systemic corruption and abuses inside the Ukrainian economy. Capitalist privatisation and deregulation have only increased corruption as capitalists are free to exploit anything they get their hands on. This corruption is the result of a society dominated by greed capitalists (oligarchs) who are the actual rulers of Ukraine. The Ukrainian state has been reduced to a weak hulk before the invasion and was therefore unprepared for the attack.
Putin’s empire may have the better means to win, but they too are plagued with corruption and mismanagement. As with Ukraine, Russia embraced free market fundamentalism in the 1990’s. Despite the restoration of the Kremlin as the all powerful central government, the army remained ineffective. Russian soldiers are mostly made up of conscripts who are forced to fight. In the 2022 invasion, soldiers who made up the invasion force came from the poorer rural parts of Russia, not from the rich cities like Moscow or Saint Petersburg.
Ukraine has the luck that Russia has an ineffective army, build on mistrust between soldiers and officers. The fact that Russia lost 150.000 soldiers and over 2.000 tanks and armed vehicles, shows us that between reality on the battlefield and parades on Red Square is a huge difference. The biggest fear of the Kremlin is a popular revolt like the revolution of February and November 1917. Because ordinary Russians do not wish to fight and with more death husbands, sons, uncles and friends, the reality of a brutal imperialist war caused by the Kremlin is now becoming more clear.
Ukraine and the workers movement
Early 2022, many men were willing to take up arms. But these men are either death or wounded. The group that is now fighting is losing moral due to the fact that Ukraine is not winning. Volodymyr Zelenskyy is saying each week that Ukraine will win, but soldiers understand that this is propaganda talking. The 2023 summer offensive failed, they could not breach the Russian defence lines. With this reality sinking in, recruitment becomes more difficult as men do not wish to join the Ukrainian Army. Although hope for a military victory remain, the Ukrainians start to understand that this war could be long and difficult for them.
Because of the war, the workers movement in both Russia and Ukraine is fully subjugated to the pro-capitalist leadership in Kyiv and Moscow. In Russia, the imperialists have silenced any opposition and Kyiv has presented itself as the leader of the resistance against Russian imperialism. However if the workers movement remains passive, then their suffering will only remain. This is why revolutionary socialists call for the formation of a revolutionary political alternative, to the governments of Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin.
Independent trade unions will have to be set up in opposition to the state controlled unions in both nations. Some small strikes have occurred in Ukraine, this shows us that there is the will to fight the injustice caused by the capitalist system. This is why International Socialist Alternative (ISA) believes it is important to develop a strong, organised and politically conscious working class movement in Ukraine, that can take control of the situation.
Is there a way out for the working class?
It remains important for socialists in Russia to build the anti-war movement. This is indeed difficult as the Kremlin does not tolerant opposition to their imperialist war. We say that opposition to the war must be linked to opposing and overthrowing the Putin regime and the capitalist system he supports. Putin fear a workers uprising, because his government is not that strong. If the Russian army is unable to conquer Ukraine, it will sure not be able to defend the Kremlin from a massive workers and peasants uprising on the scale of 1917.
We show solidarity with the Ukrainian working class, but not in a way to strengthen western imperialism or the nationalist government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Unlike some leftists we do not side with the idea that Ukraine must be armed by NATO. International Socialist Alternative stands for real links with workers’ organisations in Ukraine as they fight the labour laws, wage cuts and privatisation and to assist them directly with real material and humanitarian aid, helping the Ukrainian working class to create their own alternative organisations, independent of capitalist politicians like Zelenskyy.
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